New research calculates the effect of conditional loans on the economy.
Chazen Institute Director Glenn Hubbard and Chazen Senior Scholar Pierre Yared discuss the decades-old trend of rising national debt. Among their insights: the problem isn’t unique to the US.
Why can't solving the climate crisis attract more money?
We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present-biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we examine rules under limited enforcement: the government has full policy discretion and can only be incentivized to comply with a rule via the use of penalties which are joint and bounded. We show that optimal incentives must be bang-bang.
We consider optimal government debt maturity in a deterministic economy in which the government can issue any arbitrary debt maturity structure and in which bond prices are a function of the government's current and future primary surpluses. The government sequentially chooses policy, taking into account how current choices - which impacts future policy -- feed back into current bond prices. We show that issuing consols constitutes the unique stationary optimal debt portfolio, as it boosts government credibility to future policy and reduces the debtfinancing costs.
